A Win for the World
There is a reasonable chance that in the next few weeks negotiations with Vladimir Putin will begin first with terms for the withdrawal of Russian troops and then with regard to what would be required to lift economic and other sanctions against Russia. This advocacy effort is directed to consideration of the sanctions round of negotiations. A variety of events could make this initiative irrelevant in which case it would be not offered or ignored.
The summary perspective of A Win for the World is that the United States and allies should guide negotiations to lift economic sanctions from a just peace perspective that goes beyond the military detente and international economic rules for trade and other international economic activities that are commonly summarized as the new world order.
The theological Just Peace perspective has gained prominence in response to the relevance and limitations of Christian theologies of crusade, of pacifism, and of Just War (rules of war). This perspective was initiated by the United Church of Christ and has since found favor in multiple and varied iterations. It is in keeping with the spirit of several United Nations proclamations of human rights. For the purpose of this advocacy effort, the simplified version of Just Peace theology is to use times of peace to build up justice which advances the cause of peace. Then, when wars occur, as in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the goals become containing the damage and then fighting to win. Do Russian soldiers deserve to die. NO. Allowing surrender and treating prisoners of war humanely matters. Does active combat require killing people fighting as enemies? YES.
The first win for the world would be a free, strengthened, unified, and rebuilt Ukraine. The bigger win for the world would be a Russian Federation that has the capacity to defend itself militarily but not the capacity to invade other nations. That would open the door to invite Russia into the new world economic order again.
The reasonableness of this advocacy effort is that Russia is already losing militarily in Ukraine. Advances have been blocked and Russia has backed down to destroying civilian targets with artillery and some other ways. Economic sanctions against Russia have been unified to a great extent and are having significant effects.
A significantly weakened Russia makes two things reasonably possible. The first is a dramatic change in world military circumstances with the United States remaining as the only world superpower and China as a regional superpower. This means that if China acts badly in military terms the free world can focus all its strategic military and economic energy on China without worrying about Russia opening up a seperate front. That is a game changer for U.S, Britain, and NATO military planning.
After WWII the first bright example of just peace theology (not named at the time) began with the Marshall Plan to restore Germany and make it a friend rather than an enemy. More often emphasized, the new world order emerged with emphasis on justice defined as rule based order respecting the sovereignty of nations large and small and participation in rule based economic order. The United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, world banking system, plus the emergence of multinational corporations, came into existence and then dominance. Just peace principles go beyond military detente and shared economic rules to affirm generosity, peace, and mutual thriving.
Just peace theology includes confession and repentance understood as making changes and doing better. The United States has done a lot of bad things and made mistakes including actions in Central and South America, the genocidal bombing of Cambodia, and the confused and awful results in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The United States has also done a lot of very good things we can be very proud of. We can further clean up our act, for example, by ending torture as a military or intelligence tactic.
We do not need to repeat the Marshall Plan. Just peace guidance for removing economic sanctions against Russia should focus on what is good for the Russian people in Russia. A small posible example: return the wealth of the oligarchs to the Russian people in the form of strengthening education, medical care, and physical infrastructure. The Russian Federation was practicing democracy, at least in local elections, when Putin came to power. His consolidation of autocracy made elections a sham. We can encourage a return to democracy. (The Communist Party is banned in Russia after it launched a failed coup attempt.)
It is not utopian to imagine Russia reformed as a prosperous nation with the benefits of prosperity more widely distributed for all the people in Russia. Such a Russia could be welcomed into the European Union and NATO. With Europe living in peace, we would be better prepared to respond not only to China, but also to all the small dictators, corruption, criminal gangs, and ethnic abusers that trouble so many countries.
This proposal is not aimed at nation building defined as imposing democracy and United Nations principles of human rights. Neither is this proposal aimed at imposing Just Peace theology. It is aimed at proposing guiding principles for military, economic, and political leaders to take into consideration what is good for Ukraine, for Russia, and for the world in negotiations concerning the lifting of economic sanctions.
If you want to support this advocacy effort, please sign on by writing to patrish@erols.com. Provide your name, no address, and any title of yours that might add to the weight of your signature.
Background Information for A Win for the World
This background information has two parts. The first is about the military and economic circumstances and diplomatic circumstances of Russia, up to date. The second is about moral principles, the emergent establishment of world order after World War II, and a couple of things to remember as we respond to the people of Russia and the reasonableness of returning to beginning democracy in Russia before Putin consolidated power into an autocracy.
Economics
Russia is commonly discussed as a major economy. A closer look gets behind GDP numbers suggests Russia is a decidedly 2nd rate economy.
According to International Monetary Fund numbers, UN numbers, and International Monitary fund numbers Russia has the 11th largest economy in the world, following Canada and South Korea. The United States has a $23 trillion dollar economy, China a $17 trillion dollar economy, Japan a $5 trillion dollar economy, while Russia has a $1.65 trillion dollar economy which is smaller than the economies of California, Texas, and New York. It is about four times the size of the Maryland economy. Consider how small a number this is for Russia as the largest nation by far in terms of territory.
Furthermore, the primary income of Russia from energy and metal sales goes to oligarchs who remain oligarchs at Putin’s whim. The people of Russia have not been benefitting much in terms of investments in human resources or in physical infrastructure. A lot of government spending spending has gone into the military and space programs of Russia.
Military
Russia is commonly described as having the fourth largest military in the world. That is true when you are counting tanks, artillery, navy ships, airplanes, etc. However, as the war in Ukraine has amply demonstrated, there is a lot more to military power than equipment: coordination, training, morale, supply structures and procedures, for starters. They have 200 modern fighter airplanes and the rest are older planes like the 56 planes in the Ukrainian air force that haven’t been of much use to Ukraine. Another example, U.S. pilots do a lot of their training on sophisticated simulators which costs a lot less than the fuel and maintenance costs of flying airplanes.
Russia has one modern and experienced (in Syria) Army Corps and was that was deployed to the Donbass region far from the major fights for cities. Russia’s armies are dispersed throughout Ukraine with troops most commonly estimated at 150,000. That makes coordination difficult, a problem made much worse by local commanders not being freed up to make their own decision but having to pass requests up a layer or three of command. It makes resupply difficult. It makes them targets for Ukrainian resistance efforts that operate with considerable independence and increasingly capable weaponry.
A stalemate is a military loss for Russia. There are multiple stories of poor morale and surrenders by soldiers, sometimes including sabotage of their vehicles. Ukraine has a population of 40 plus million people after refugees have left. Ukraine is arming and training volunteer militias with a lot of volunteers. Over ten thousand volunteers with military experience, including quite a few from the United States, are strengthening the resistance. Substantial supplies of Stinger and Javellin missiles that can be carried by a single soldier are substantial threats to the Russian air force, to tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery, plus resupply vehicles such as gasoline tankers.
In short, Russia is in a losing military situation and cannot do much about it other than using artillery to attack civilian target.
Diplomacy
Attacks on civilians after World War II have come to be counted as atrocities not just tragedies. Putin may well have estimated that Europe was divided, that NATO was weak militarily with low military expenditures, and that the United States is politically divided with former president Trump wanting to pull out of NATO and wanting to be friends with Putin, maybe get a Trump hotel in Moscow. If so, despite his KGB training, he badly misread the situation. He has felt weak enough to ask for economic and military help from China, even asking for MREs (ready to eat meals). All he got was some friendly words. In short, Russia is on its own.
Sanctions on the oligarchs matter. Going after Russian dark money matters as in the response of Switzerland. Corporations cutting ties matter. The people he most counts on are getting squeezed and have to be worried about getting squeezed harder.
Moral Principles, the New World Order, and a reminder about Russia before Putin
The United States, Russia, China, Britain, and many other powerful or once powerful countries have histories that are currently considered immoral: slavery, genocide, corruption, colonialism, racism, no women’s rights, and more. All have committed atrocities. Many of these immoral practices remain in somewhat reduced forms.
Nonetheless, at the macro level of economic and military nations, there are broad practices and pronouncements that collectively make up the New World Order. All have come into existence after the Second World War and constitute a rejection of old fashioned colonialism: the United Nations with its moral declarations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, multiple trade agreements, and the establishment of a world wide banking system for easy transfer of money.
One of the wide agreements is that large nations shouldn’t gobble up small nations. Sure there is a lot of slippage around whether you want to go to war on behalf of a small nation. China has gotten away with gobbling up Tibet, Hong Kong, and is contending with India for Kashmir. Russia gobbled up Crimea which had been given to Ukraine by Kruschev and than grabbed the Donbass in Northeast Ukraine. Putin has talked about gobbling up Modova, Georgia, and the Baltics. His invasion of Ukraine was too significant to let slide. The attacks on civilians is also a major violation of UN rules and broad understandings.
The New World Order is not very relevant for the majority of small wars around the world set off over ethic, tribal, religious, or criminal gangs, hostilities.
The New World Order is not about requiring democracy or humane treatment of people within nations. It is about providing economic integration between nations and stopping world scale war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to the economic sanctions on Russia and the gathering of NATO to contain the war to Ukraine and to supply weapons and other supplies to the Ukrainian resistance.
As we image Russia rather than Putin, I suggest focusing on the Russian Federation constitution and practices of democracy with real elections, at least in local races, before Putin took over. (The Communist Party is banned in Russia.)
This summary is the context for writing A Win for the World on the basis of Just Peace theology that has taken root in many ways on an international scale, including responses to national disasters, small scale economic development projects, cooperation around medical concerns such as Covid, famine relief, environmental concerns, and others.
Just Peace theology supports the New World Order but is a vision for much more than mere economic and military detente.